liquor sales are banned in two states on election day. it's a leftover law from prohibition days. it was made to stop people from buying votes with booze. >> all right. thanks for watching, everybody. see you all night long on cnbc. hi, everybody. we enter the final stretch. welcome to the "closing bell," this special edition. i'm maria bartiromo. today, voters out in force right now at the polling booths on this election tuesday. the bulls are on the move on wall street as well. >> boy, they sure are. i'm bill griffeth. a lot going on today. the markets reflecting the close nature of the president race. both sides trying to spin it their way. if you believe what the equity markets are saying, maybe we could see a mitt romney victory. if you believe what most commodities are pointing to, it could be a re-election for the president. one thing is for sure. someone will be elected tonight or even tomorrow if it's a photo

finish. >> absolutely. let's look at big rally here. the dow holding on to a triple-digit gain throughout the session today. we're off the best levels of the session. nonetheless, up 143 points on the industrial average. that's better than 1%. a similar move for the nasdaq. 12 points higher, again off the best levels of 1311. the s&p 500 currently showing a gain of nearly 1%, about 12 points higher. so what are the markets hinting about tonight's presidential results? let's get some opinions on that. >> yes, let's do that in the "closing bell exchange." joe, what do you think? can we read anything into today's market action based on what's strong or what's weak or whatever? >> not so much. heading into the election, if you just look at the polls, it seemed pretty clear both

candidates are really neck and neck. i think part of the rally you're seeing right now is just a relief we are going to come to some type of conclusion. there's been a lot of anticipation billing up to this. this is really some type of relief rally. >> rick, what do you think? definitely a risk-on rally today. what do you read into that? is it relieving some uncertainty no matter what wins? >> well, to look at the markets doesn't mean you're going to get a glimpse into who's going to win or lose. you're going to get a glimpse into the psyche of traders and who they think are going to win and lose. around 11:30 today when that ohio paper said romney was heading to ohio later, the s&p ran up. interest rates, 10s and 30s ran up. so i think you have that dynamic. the dollar index has been on a nice run, but today it's only down a little. so it's not a factor, even though commodities are trading large.

i don't know that i can garner much from the commodity trade today. i'm not sure who's going to win based on the markets outside of my own opinions. >> steve, once we know who the president will be tonight or tomorrow, that's when the work begins, the fiscal cliff. >> i think that's right. i don't think there's anything about this election that solves the problems the market is truly interested in. it doesn't solve the fiscal cliff problem. it sure doesn't solve the issue of, for example, corporate profits, which were very high for a period of time and have recently leveled off. a romney victory or obama victory is not going to solve the corporate profits problem. one theory out there, and we'll test if this is true, is perhaps a romney win would unleash some of the corporate spending we haven't see. that's a theory right now. i would like to be proven wrong. >> brian, what about that? if we were to see clarity tonight then we do, in fact, get that money that's on the sidelines loosened up and looked toward job creation?

>> well, from a corporate standpoint, yes, maria, because most u.s. corporations are sitting on cash. as you saw profit margins hitting all-time highs. they're clearly not hiring a lot. at the end of the day, this whole economy and the stock market is about jobs. the market could be up even more if we start to see some job creation, but we can't be bidding stocks higher unless we start to see some in flows from our private client friends, who by the way, don't buy bond funds. we still think there's a lot of work to do on the investment side in terms of building further fundamental clarity with respect to the option of buying equities versus selling them. >> so you're not jumping on this bandwagon today, this rally we're seeing here? >> no, for one thing, we are just relieved that all of this election stuff is over. that's number one. number two, let's get back to the business of america and stocks going up in america as an asset looking very well on a longer term perspective. however, on a near-term basis, the market in our belief is well

ahead of historical norms in terms of election years and fundamentally. next year things will look better. near term, i think a lot of participants could be surprised if we see a pullback from here because it's very consensus to think if romney wins the market is going to rally. well, it's already in the market. we would be concerned that we'd get a bit of a pullback near term. >> joseph, what do you think? in terms of putting money to work today, would you be buying into this rally or selling into it? >> i think part of the issue right now is not so much the election. it's really the fiscal cliff. the unfortunate thing is we really couldn't make any heads or tails as far as what's going to happen with this fiscal cliff until we get clarity from the election. i suspect between now and the end of the year, you'll see a lot more anxiety. there will be more headlines around the fiscal cliff, which is going to create volatility. that said, i continue to believe the fiscal cliff will be resolved. once we do see some type of compromise, i do suspect you'll see a rally on the other end of

that. >> rick, after that, we start a new day on wednesday. the greek parliament has to vote on the austerity package that's been presented to them. here we go again. >> and it's europe. the one thing -- >> bill, you're suggesting the great thing about this election is that it clears the way for us to greece. >> i'm suggesting we start looking at the bogey we've been looking at for so long. >> there's a lot to learn from greece. anybody who's been a parent completely understands. you demand something. you give something. greece keeps taking. they don't give what they're supposed to give. they do it over and over and over. i think greece is the little itty bitty issue in europe. i think the stencil of what they haven't done to get this money and these packages is going to be an issue for other countries. i think it's the problem of trying to fix europe is that promises are always unrequited with regard to the countries getting the assistance. >> steve, what about you?

>> i agree. i'm not sure that the focus of austerity is one that's worked particularly well in greece. i think that -- >> you think? >> greece could have been bailed out much earlier. i agree with rick that it's something that's larger than just the issue of greece. it's an issue of european sovereignty. is europe going to act like a sovereign nation the way the united states does? that's not been decided yet. i think the german voters are not behind it. it's interesting to think we haven't really spoken about europe in a while. it remains out there. again, i come back to my notion that except for the capital spending issue, which maybe brian is right that this unleashes a cap-ex torrent, which would be great, it's hard to see what this election says, in part because we didn't get to interview the candidates enough in the final. we would have pressed them. you and i and bill and everybody. how do you solve the fiscal cliff? those would have been things. i get the romney plan. i get the obama plan. i don't personally get either

plan. >> that was a disappointment for everyone. the interviews were not economic-based. any interview we saw. all right. thanks, everybody. obviously this market is not focused on europe today. we're talking about the election in the u.s. all day. we are talking about the work beginning after we get this clarity. >> as we head toward the close, about 52 minutes left. here the dow jones industrial average off the lows. gain now, 141. >> stick around. we've got a lot more ahead on this special election day edition of the "closing bell." coming up on this special election day edition of the "closing bell," up for grabs. the very latest news from the battleground states that could decide the presidential race. and our own larry kudlow weighs in on which states he's watching most closely. plus, money matters. the former wells fargo ceo talks the election's impact on wall street and what it could mean for your bottom line. and your money, your initiative. got an issue you need passed?

we'll show you how some americans are using their own income to further causes they believe in. that's all ahead on the "closing bell." or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing.

welcome back. that was a live picture of the polling area in scentennial, colorado. it's a snapshot of who we're seeing across the country today as all eyes are on the presidential election. there are several swing states, but the road to the white house could be decided in ohio. >> that's the big swing state. senior correspondent scott cohn is there in the buckeye state's capital of columbus. what are you hearing before the polls close, scott? >> reporter: well, bill, it is an important state for both candidates. for governor mitt romney, it is nearly essential in his path to 270 electoral votes. he's made two trips here in the last 24 hours. actually, even less than that. here today up in cleveland for a

quick stop following a quick stop at the airport here in columbus last night. vice president joe biden was here today as well practically bumping into governor romney up in cleveland where he paid a visit today. and president obama last night here in columbus, a rally attended by about 15,000 people as well as bruce springsteen and jay-z. all of this has definitely got the attention of the voters in ohio. here at ohio state university, they have been lined up out the door at a polling place here at the ohio union. we're hearing reports of strong turnout throughout the state, including in areas that are heavily republican or heavily independent, which of course tends to favor governor romney. reverend jesse jackson has been here in the state since this weekend and will be here through today. he has been looking at what he says are potential irregularities, but he says the heavy turnout favors the

president. >> it seems that the attempts to suppress the vote here has turned into stimulation. people are determined against all odds to vote. >> reporter: a federal judge blocked an attempt today for a temporary restraining order against the use of some of the software they'll use to help tally the results or submit the results. the state claimed the software was opened to hacking. another case is still pending. it involves the provisional ballots. some 200,000 provisional ballots cast in ohio last time around. could be at least that much this time. some experts are saying if this election is close, and we're talking within 50,000 votes or so, they could be the hanging chads of 2012. guys. >> all right, scott. thanks very much. aside from ohio, there are four additional states that our own larry kudlow says are critical to the race to the white house. >> the obama people have been

calling them the midwest fire wall. larry says romney has a good shot of breaking through that firewall. he's with us here in studio right now. >> okay. so as scott said, ohio is big. it's funny. i actually don't think romney's going to win in ohio. i don't think he ran a good campaign in ohio. i don't think that last-minute ad about the chrysler being built in china was a very good idea. on the other hand, i'm very, very interested in wisconsin, which is not republican turf for many years, but because of scott walker and paul ryan, that could be a big surprise. i'm hugely interested in pennsylvania. that was not on the romney map initially. what's happened is after the debates, pennsylvania shot up. he's drawing gigantic crowds there, and that could be a big surprise. then one little one. it's only six votes, if i'm not mistaken, but he's doing very well in iowa.

he's polling very well in iowa. i'm not a polling expert, lord knows, but i'll say this. romney could lose ohio. he could lose pennsylvania. and he could still win the election. >> how? >> the south. >> colorado and wisconsin. colorado and wisconsin. >> you don't think wisconsin is a given, though, because of paul ryan? of course, it's not a given in massachusetts either, is it? >> i'll tell you this, i don't think anything is a given. you know why i say that? i think the voter i.d. turnouts that are determining these polls are highly flawed this year. you had 2008 which was an outlier. if you decide democrats plus seven or democrats plus five based on 2008, what about 2004? what about 2000? what about 2010, for example? in other words, i think one of the losers tonight could be the polls themselves because their voter models are not good, and

an honest pollster will tell you that. >> i think we all agree that it's not so close that we have to look to these irregularities that may exist, the early voting, and some of the problems logistically that may have caused. you know, whatever else may be out there. >> i can't believe how antiquated things seem. when i voted today, it seemed so unorganized. it was a scanner. first, you write it down, then you scan it through. i just felt like, i don't know. this day and age, you would think we weren't as disorganized and sort of antiquated. >> two scanners before busted at my wife's polling spot. the crowds were going crazy. i always vote by absentee. i always get off the hook. i just want to make one point. this is about early voting. that was because of the obama strategy in 2008. it worked. but here in 2012, a lot of people will tell you their early voting is not working, and it's

falling way behind where they were in 2008. the early voting for obama is actually becoming negative, that the enthusiasm and intensity that they had in '08 is not being duplicated here in 2012, and this adds more confusion and undermines this whole voter i.d. business that the polls are depending on. i'm just saying, the polls, i think, they're going to be one of the losers tonight. all right? if i were you, i'd watch the vote totals. i'd watch the key precinct vote totals. but i wouldn't necessarily watch the polls themselves. >> obviously ohio. but you're always going to watch pennsylvania. >> got to watch p.a. >> and wisconsin. >> got to watch wisconsin. keep an eye on iowa. six votes. and colorado. i'm just saying, romney's path -- he could lose ohio. he could lose p.a., but still become president if he wins in colorado and wisconsin. is it a long shot?

who knows? we'll see later. >> what an exciting race. thank you, larry. >> don't forget, cnbc is your election headquarters. beginning at 5:00 p.m., a special edition of "squawk box." >> at 7:00, carl quintanilla will join me as we take you to the first poll closings until whenever the election is called. >> it's a late night. meanwhile, 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds today. the market is rallying, although we're off the best levels. >> one of the nation's richest men using his own money to warn against what he sees is our nation's side toward socialism. listen. >> america's wealth comes from the efforts of people striving for success. take away their incentive with bad mouthing success and you take away the wealth that helps us take care of the needy. >> coming up, interactive brokers founder and ceo thomas

peterffy explains why he thinks mitt romney can get the country back on track. first, look at apple. the stock dangerously close to bare-market territory. find out if this is a value trap or a buying opportunity. that's all ahead. stay with us. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from ch in america today we're running out of a vital resource we need

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today. the market rallying into the close. technology has been a real driving force today. seema mody with that angle. >> absolutely. ever since noon eastern, the nasdaq has been trading in this tight range. although, we are seeing notable gains across the broader tech sector. computer sciences shares hitting a 52-week high. stronger than expected earnings. you can see shares rallying. on the flip side, the biggest drag on the nasdaq is fossil. best known for its watches. its revenue falling a bit short of street con ssensus on weak jewelry shares, especially in europe. shares reacting to that. back to you. >> all right, seema. thank you very much. technology may be up, but am shares continue to fall. that stock, which was a huge bell weather for this market is now just 2% away from a 20% decline from its most recent highs. in wall street vernacular, a 20%

decline is bear market territory. what does this mean for this stock and for the market overall? let's talk numbers on that. on the technical side, carter werth. on the fundamental side, alex. carter, it's all yours. what about this breathtaking decline? >> it's been quite aggressive to the downside. there's a silver lining. let's have a look. the chart i have of apple here, there are two, i want to just put in context the current selloff. so this is a one-year chart. what you have is a well-defined channel, if you will. it is rising. what's important is the selloff that we saw in april, may, and the selloff currently right now. i want to put those two things in context. the next chart will look at those two selloffs and show how uniform they are. the first one, and here they are, just as drawn. these selloffs we have seen are incredibly precise. this is 28 sessions. it was a decline of 18.5%.

this one now, 28 sessions, 18.5%. exact same duration. i think you play for the bounce off the trend line. it's a damaged stock. it's a stock under pressure. the selloff is discounting a great deal. >> you think it goes up from here? >> i think you play for some kind of bounceback. the lowest just a day or two ago. i think you get back into the 620, 625 kind of level. >> okay. alex, what do you think fundamentally? they did sell a heck of a lot of ipad minis. >> carter is right. you could get a technical bounce from these levels. but there's fundamental reasons why this stock is trading near recessioner ite territory, or b market territory. the company has started missing earnings projections, getting harder for them to beat right now. there are issues in terms of the quality of the ios upgrade cycle. that's led to some turbulence. most importantly is the gross margin compression under way for

the company. the bull case is that you'll get gross margin relief early next year, but it doesn't have samsung as a supplier. that's why jmp, rather than play app apple, is recommending names like qualcomm. >> all right. so you like those better. quickly, can this market rally without apple? >> it can. but notice those two periods of weakness are the exact same period when the market was low. >> was that a timed program? is that why they were so specific and so exact? >> at some point. that's when certain people start to come in and say, hey, it's overdone. it's not random that it's awfully uniform. this is about where i would say you have price discovery. >> all right. >> that's what we love about numbers. thank you, both, for talking numbers today on apple. see you later. >> meanwhile, about 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. we have a market holding on to a triple dingt gain. off the best levels but up 132 on the dow industrials.

>> stocks have had a good ride the last four years under mitt romney. but the former wells fargo ceo weighs in with which candidate he believes it better. >> and our election coverage begins live at 5:00 p.m. with a special edition of "squawk box." i'll be anchoring with carl k t quintanilla at 7:00 p.m. eastern when the first polls close. we'll take you live until we know who the winner is of the white house. meantime, superstorm sandy may have devastated new york city, but turnout is heavy in queens, new york, as voters cast their ballots in makeshift polling locations. been like that in many parts of the tri-state area today. we're back in a moment. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong.

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welcome back. busy day here on election day. 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. let's give you a quick market stat check on the industrial average. stocks rising for the third day in four days on relief that the election will soon be over. the industrial average up 126 points. had been up close to 200 earlier, so we are off of the best levels. we're still now hitting a two-week high on the dow. all ten s&p 500 groups on the upside today led by energy, industrials, and financials. those three sectors also touching their best levels in two weeks. >> we just want the campaign commercials to be over. that's what we're glad about. look at polls in centennial, colorado. we showed you that live earlier. people lining up. they're also lining up in san francisco to cast their vote for america's commander in chief over the next four years. there they are. a right that i hope nobody takes for granted and can take the time to get out there today. >> absolutely. we know it's going to be a tight and close race.

wall street has clearly thrown support to governor mitt romney here. we're rallying ahead of the expectation that perhaps he gives the market a surprise. let's talk to one of those supporters, former wells fargo chairman and ceo dick ka vos vich. thanks so much for joining us. why romney? >> i think the current administration has not had the right policies to grow the economy and bring down the unemployment level to an acceptable level below 6%. i think romney will have different policies and that will grow the economy at a higher rate. >> realistically, what could he do, dick, when you bear in mind the roadblock that any president faces when you have the kind of makeup and temperament of a congress that we've had for the last several years here? >> well, i think it's all about policies, not politics. i think whoever is elected, i think what they should do is the following. they should recognize that the partisanship and polarization is

here. it's not going to change. no one is going to convince the republicans to vote with the democrats and vice versa. there has to be a compromise. there has to be a consensus. >> amen to that. >> here's how i -- >> you don't get that these days. >> here's how i think you can accomplish it. i think you start with a bipartisan approach. the first approach would be the simpson-bowles approach. i think it was well done. it's not perfect. nothing ever is. but i think they should start and say we're going to start with that. remember, simpson-bowles includes social security reform. what it doesn't include is health care reform. congressman ryan and senator widen from oregon, a democrat and a republican, do have a proposal that is bipartisan to do health care. that solves health care. but deficit reduction commission is not all that's necessary. what we also need to establish is a growth commission. we can never solve our

entitlement problems with 1.5% to 2% growth. we need 3.5% to 4%. >> we've got to get back on the track toward growth. one of the issues out there is the idea of a heavy regulation. can you walk us through the differences of the regulatory environment, how the environment will impact the banking sector, for example. financial services under obama versus under romney. >> well, i think it's also a matter of jobs again. i can just tell you that under dodd frank, the bottom 25% of the income levels will not have access to credit. dodd frank says that a bank should not make a loan unless they're sure that the borrower can pay it back. >> isn't that the job of a bank though? >> i've been in the business for 40 years and haven't figured out how to do that all the time. >> so it's all dodd frank? >> you have to take some risk. some borrowers are not going to be able to pay.

but you can't be perfect. so this is a trial lawyer's retirement fund. to have these kinds of laws and regulations on. i'd also say small banks. i don't know. they won't exist much longer with the heavy dose of regulation that dodd frank puts on them. >> would you dismantle dodd frank? is that what you're advocating? even jamie dimon admits there's need for regulation after the financial crisis. candidly, he calls it dodd frankenstein. that's more for shoe more effect than anything else. >> let me ask you this question. what policies do the federal reserve and what authority do the federal reserve not have to rein in the risk of citi corp.? >> what if they had no? >> yeah, what authority did they not have to rein in the risk of citicorp? >> well, they're not one only

regulators. that's the problem. >> what's the answer? >> the problem that regulators aren't regulating. >> right. >> we don't need more regulations. every regulation that existed would have reined in, if the regulators had done their job, would have regulated the risks. they failed to do their job. >> so what you're saying is under obama, we will get more regulation for the financial services industry because of dodd frank. as a result of that, you'll see smaller banks go away, go out of business, et cetera. what are the other implications, and what about romney? how does romney's plan, in terms of the regulatory story, differ? >> let me put it this way. if you go back to every economic crisis we've had and any growth and jobs that comes from small business, this is the only recession, the only time that i can remember that small businesses aren't growing their employment. why? because, first of all, taxes. small businessmen don't have a

corporate income tax. most of them have a sub-chapter s. their taxes are rising in the midst of a recession. large corporations aren't being taxed more. so large corporations are still doing just fine, thank you very much. secondly, let's talk cost. >> very quickly. >> most large corporations give health care to their employees. small businesses don't. obamacare is going to cost small businesses billions of dollars. finally, more regulation. big banks, you know, unfortunately can still handle more regulation. small banks can't. >> you make great points. >> there's an example of why our economy isn't growing today. >> very quickly on the fiscal cliff. do you expect dividend taxes to go from 15% to 43%? are you expecting a much lower rate if they come to an agreement? >> i think it will be a much lower rate. >> all right. we'll leave it there. great to have you on the program. see you soon. we'll have full coverage of the battle for the white house

beginning here at 5:00 p.m. i'll be anchoring the coverage with carl quintanilla beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern time until the race is decided. big night. >> bring your pajamas. heading toward the close with 20 minutes left. where is the time going? the dow is well off its highs of about 115 points. >> it is. the market may be rallying, but somebody here says the economy is in trouble no matter who wins this election. thz next. s a ahead, some of the nation's wealthiest citizens are spending big bucks on this election on several key ballot measures. robert frank has details on that coming up later. then the road to the white house goes through ohio this year. voters in that state turning out in force to cast their ballots. we'll take you there. back in a moment.

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just before the break, we asked, which company stock with earnings out tomorrow morning is outperforming this year?

macy's, molson coors, or time warner? now the payoff. macy's, which has climbed over 25% year to date. we have been in rally mode today. energy has been a part of that rally. sharon epperson has details. >> bill, traders are offering a variety of explanations for why we are seeing commodities higher. some are saying that an obama re-election will mean we'll see fed chairman bernanke stay longer or at least see a continuation of accommodative monetary policy. others are saying, well, at least we'll know who will be in the white house for the next four years. some level of uncertainty will be lifted for the market. that also they say is bullish for commodities. but there are others who say just look at technical levels. today's rally has a lot to do with breaking through some key markers. namely on the wti contract above $88 a barrel and a 2 1/2 year high foreign lumber. back to you. >> all right, sharon. thank you very much. so what is today's rally telling us about the potential outcome of the presidential election and

how should you play it right now? regardless of who wins, will it have any effect on the economy? joining us now, rich bernstein, cnbc contributor. jeff cox, cnbc.com senior writer. and our own bob posani. gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us. rich, lay out your vision for the economy 2013. what are you expecting, and does it matter who's in the white house? >> all in 30 seconds, rich. >> i'll tell you, i'm going to upset everybody on both sides of the aisle and tell you it doesn't make a difference. we're already seeing early cycle sectors of the economy start to perform better. that's setting the groundwork, we think, for a better 2013, 2014 that investors are currently expecting right now. >> bob, what about this rally today? when it occurred, most of it, as a result of this, what was that, a buy program around 11:30 eastern time? >> there's all sorts of, i think, erroneous reports about what might win based on whatever

polls people might want to cite. what i see today is this. a classic risk-on reflation trade. what are the two things that everybody is afraid of that nobody wants? number one is no winner tomorrow. litigation dragging on for months. everybody agrees market drops on that. the other thing, the fiscal cliff goes on forever and ever and maybe we go over the fiscal cliff. everyone agrees markets go down on that. today i think we're getting some hope. the markets seem to be saying we're going to get a winner, and we might get some resolution to the fiscal cliff. look what's going on with lockheed martin. they've said it they hit the fiscal cliff, they're in big trouble. the stock is at a 52-week high today. >> so the market's voting that way, i guess. jeff, what do you make of what's going on? >> i think we're actually overthinking this rally today. last election, 2008, we saw a big rally the day of the election. the stocks went up 3%. it was just this certainty. we kind of know something is going to happen today. i think when you look at does it

make a difference, i think i agree with rich to some extent. we are looking at a dead economy. i'm looking forward to earnings that are going to be -- we're already starting to see them -- >> oh, come on. dead economy? isn't that a little aggressive? >> wait until the deficit monster comes next year. you're going to start to see we didn't have any warning when greece came. i saw rich's piece in the ft today. we didn't get any warnings in the '70s. it's coming. i think you're seeing that in the market. >> you think the spending cuts necessary to reduce our deficit will be enough to try and put us back in a recession again? >> absolutely. i think you're going to see us open either flat or in a recession. as we go through the year, we start to see some of these things happen where the lack of confidence is going to continue to fester itself because we're not going to get this deficit thing under control because it's going so far out of control, ben bernanke stays with the fed, and

we keep monetizing the debt. >> rich, tell us about the fiscal cliff and the implications. have we already blown it by not addressing this? or is this a way to salvage economic growth for 2013, not slip into recession regardless of who wins the white house? >> oh, i think it's very easy to avert recession. all you have to do is really do some of the things that jeff was talking about in terms of, you know, i think you have to raise revenue. you have to cut spending. i think we have to look at both. the thing is, you want to do it in a way that is implemented over a number of years. this doesn't have to be implemented in three weeks. i think if you do that and do that gradually, which is kind of what's happened in the past in washington, i think you avert the catastrophe that many people are talking about. look, i think the rally today also is another thing. you're going to have certainty tomorrow. you may not like who wins. but you're going to know what the outcome is, and you're going

to know how to plan for your business. businesses have argued they don't like president obama, but they'll know tomorrow whether he's going to be the president or not. they'll know how to plan. >> one of the bottlenecks for the economy has been the lack of capital spending, capital expenditures by corporations. they're sitting on a lot of cash. does it matter who wins for them? will they start spending no matter who takes the white house or the house and the senate? >> well, i think the answer is what i just said before. you're going to have more certainty tomorrow. you may not like the policies put in place, but you will know what's going on. i think that is a major improvement over where we are yesterday as to where we'll be tomorrow. i think that's one of the reasons why the market is reacting as they are. by the way, also, it's important to remember that all that cash on the balance sheet means that companies have been underinvesting. if they've been underinvesting and i'm right about the economy over the next year or two, you could have an m&a wave as companies decide they want to buy growth. >> rich, i don't think the stock

market is telegraphing us a lot about who might be the winner. i've been getting this all day. >> no, i'm not suggesting that at all. i'm just saying the cloud of uncertainty will be gone. you may not like to the victor is, but the cloud will be gone. >> all right. gentlemen, we'll leave it there. thank you so much. appreciate your time tonight. see you soon. we'll be watching certainly this reaction and the election results. we've got just ten minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street. a nice rally under way. up 130 on the dow. >> a big election day rally has been rare in recent years. we're going to put this into historical context. >> will we definitely know who will win presidency tonight? could this drag on for weeks? former new york governor george ptatki will join us on that. >> as we go to the break, people in florida waiting in long lines to cast their vote in what is always an important swing state. we're back after this. i'm a conservative investor.

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welcome back. what a nice election day rally today on our hands. that's not always the case. take a look at these other election day moves. >> let's do that, shall we? the headline is that election day the stock market rarely moves 1%, either up or down. rarely does. for example, back to 1992. this is when bill clinton was first elected. the market moved 0.67% that day. >> on the day. before we actually knew, though. >> this is the day of the election itself. this is the day we're living through right now in 2008. let's go to the next one. 2000 when george w. bush was elected. market that day, look at that. >> same thing. >> virtually unchanged that day. 2008, four years ago when president obama was elected, and this is an exception to the rule, and a big one too. 2008 when barack obama was elected, market was up 4%. now -- >> there was such enthusiasm in

the air knowing that president obama was likely going to be elected. >> i'm not trying to read anything either way. >> well, it just seems that way. there was such pride in the air. >> exactly. and today now we get this rally. the s&p is up 0.75%. we have an unusual amount of trading going higher again today. are we trying to read into it? we are not at this particular point. it is interesting to see the market rally the day of the election. we'll watch tomorrow to see what the market does. >> so today, as you're seeing, the s&p 500 up ten point. you can see what's happening this election day. it's all speculation as to why, bill. >> trust me, we've been hearing the spin from both sides. one side says when the market rallies that day, the incumbent wins re-election 90% of the time. when you get the market going down on a particular day, you get change in the wind. you know, who knows? the point we're trying to make here is it's unusual for the market to have this kind of a decisive move on election day.

it's happened the last two elections. today and four years ago. beyond that, the history suggests the market takes a wait-and-see attitude. >> people are so wanting clarity at this point. that's the way i read it. we'll take a short break and have the closing countdown after this. >> also, a team of strategists standing by to help you figure out how to invest tomorrow. >> and don't forget to keep it here for all your election coverage live. it begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern with a special edition of "squawk box" at 5:00. at 7:00 p.m., i'll join coverage along with carl quintanilla. we'll take you from the first poll closings at 7:00 until this election is decided. [ male announcer ] this is steve.

he loves risk. but whether he's climbing everest, scuba diving the great barrier reef with sharks,

or jumping into the market, he goes with people he trusts, which is why he trades with a company that doesn't nickel and dime him with hidden fees. so he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense, from td ameritrade. welcome back. 2 1/2 minutes left on the trading session on a rallying day. risk-on day, whether it's a reflation rally remains to be seen. we're going out off the highis f

the day. unusual for an election day. we were reminded during the commercial that it was in 2000 when george bush was elected we had no idea who was elected at that time. it was another month before the supreme court decided that one. just so we're clear for the record. more evidence we're in a risk-on mode today, price of oil very strong. this has been one of the leaders, a 3% gain. it was just on monday we were at 84.34. gold also in rally mode today. a gain of almost 2% or $33, well back above $1700. when you buy all that, you're selling treasuries. the ten-year note has gone up seven basis points today. we're at 1.75%. the fear is coming out of this market here. the vix today down 3.6%, almost 3.7%. we're at 1774, backing away from yellow flag territory. my friend warren myers on the floor of the stock exchange.

what do you make of this rally on election day? >> i'll tell you, it's a little confusing. definitely it's risk-on. the commoditiecommodities, ener strong. one of the confusing issues, is i look at transportations. up very strong today in an environment with oil going up. >> we always try and make something of it and draw a conclusion. are we able to today? >> when this rally first started, on the floor you heard it's a romney market. then you see commodities strong. everyone says, well, that points more to obama. i don't think you can make heads or tails of it. >> only one poll matters. >> that's exactly right. >> we'll know tonight. thanks very much, warren. see you later. we're going out just off the highs of the session. as we said, the dow was up 178 points. that is not the case right now with a gain of about 129, 130 points here as we head toward the close of trading for this election day. if you haven't gone out to vote yet, get out there now and do it. stick around for cnbc's coverage